Mitt Romney introduced his campaign today with the focus on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Not Steve Jobs, just regular jobs, as in employment. This is a mistake. Yes, it is the economy stupid, usually, but it won't work this election cycle.
First the people who are out of work are not Mitt's constituents. Joblessness is high among minorities, much higher than whites. Minorities are not going to abandon the first black, Democratic, President especially when that candidate is offering them candy. (Candy means more spending, more benefits.) The economy will start to recover by mid next year and whites will be back to work. Joblessness in minority communities tends to lag behind whites. (OK, I looked and couldn't find the research. Props to someone who sends me a link.) By the time we get to the election the independent vote will be happily back to work and not at all motivated to go out to vote for something they already have.
Second, Obama believes he has the solution to jobs: Investment (also called spending and more debt.) This is extremely easy for people to understand. Obama only has to say that he will "invest" money which will pay for jobs, jobs, jobs. Mitt will be caught explaining supply side economics to the American people who can barely balance their check book. This sets up a He said/She said argument which Mitt will lose. Obama's base doesn't want the Evil Rich to get money before they do. Mitt will be painted as someone trying to help his country club friends in the business community and not helping the poor.
Third, the Tea Party wants more Freedom and Democracy. That needs to be the message. This is the only thing that will motivate the independent vote in late 2012. They want less spending to get more freedom, less central planning (O-care) to get more freedom, less debt to get more freedom.
Mitt, bless his heart, is pounding the nail with the hammer he knows, but that won't win an election this time around.
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